GCC Stock Trading Trends for 2026

Home prices have come under pressure after a duration of strong development, with recent data from the Dubai Land Department revealing a drop in home loan transactions and money sales. Nevertheless, we believe the risk of a long lasting migrant outflow and an extreme recession in the property sector is low.

As an enduring US-Iran offer takes shape, the fallout from the dispute has tightened up local monetary conditions, exposing vulnerabilities through capital outflows, broader bond spreads, and weaker investor belief. A lot of GCC sovereigns carry fairly little debt and funding risks are for that reason restricted in the UAE, the main bank's liquidity management has eased instant issues.

That stated, Bahrain has had the ability to count on assistance from neighbours, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it effectively raised $1bn from an oversubscribed sovereign bond sale this month, marking the very first offering from the region considering that the war started. High-frequency financial data highlight the stress on regional public finances from the dispute.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Global Investment Opportunities within the GCC

In Saudi Arabia, the deficit spending more than doubled to SAR125.7 bn, or about 9% of GDP in Q1, driven by a decrease in oil income and a rise in costs, particularly on aids, showing contingency outlays connected to the regional environment and an acceleration of Vision 2030 spending. In Qatar, the crisis brought oil and gas profits to a halt, swelling the deficit spending to the biggest because 2017.

GCC inflation dynamics remain unequal, with food rates the main source of upward pressure and inflation in this category fortifying in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. By contrast, food inflation stays relatively controlled in Saudi Arabia, likely reflecting the mitigating effect of its larger domestic food production base and higher supply-chain resilience.

We continue to see rate pressures as largely transitory rather than indicative of a sustained inflationary cycle. Appropriately, we anticipate typical inflation to ease to 2.1% y/y in 2027 as short-term supply-side pressures dissipate. With near-term inflation raised and transit through the Strait likely set to resume gradually, we expect the US Federal Reserve to keep rate of interest on hold till December, and regional rate policies to do the same.

We anticipate Iran's GDP to diminish by 10.8% this year (we anticipate a 9.4% contraction 3 months ago). Oil production and exports, which provide essential revenue and FX inflows, have been reduced by the US marine blockade, while non-oil activity has been significantly struck. In Iraq, oil exports have actually collapsed to a trickle and we're anticipating GDP to agreement by around 22% this year, with a sharp 33% rebound in 2027 as oil exports normalise.

By contrast, Syria continues to reintegrate into the worldwide economy after more than a decade of civil war. We anticipate GDP growth to average 9.6% over 2026-2027, supported by renewed financial investment, especially in banking and energy, monetary reforms, and the steady resuming of regional trade links.

Driving Non-Oil Growth via Global Diversification

The World Bank has actually slashed its 2026 growth forecast for Middle East economies, stating overall GDP growth in the region is expected to slow from an approximated 3.6% in January to 1.8% for 2026. The closure of the tactical Strait of Hormuz, and damage of energy and public facilities, had actually interfered with markets, increased monetary volatility, and damaged the 2026 development outlook, the World Bank Group stated in its Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The April 2026 World Bank's Macro Hardship Outlook anticipates that the region's aggregate (leaving out the Iran) GDP development will decrease to 1.8 percent in 2026, below 4.0 percent estimated for 2025. The 2026 projection has actually been downgraded by 2.4 percentage points since the January projections, showing the adverse results of the ongoing conflict.

Saudi Arabia: Projection was reduced by 1.2 portion points because January. Development is now expected to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, keeping in mind that Saudi Arabia's outlook stays the greatest amongst Gulf economies. United Arab Emirates: Growth forecast for the UAE has actually fallen by 2.7 percentage points given that January.

Qatar: Significantly, development projection for the Qatari economy has actually seen a sharp decline of 11.0 percentage points because January. The economy is now anticipated to record a contraction of 5.7%, down from an estimated development of 5.3%, due to extreme obstruction to melted gas supplies. Qatar is a key gamer in the international energy market, with a global market share of melted natural gas (LNG) products varying in between 20% and 21%.

Kuwait relies completely (100%) on the Strait of Hormuz to export its petroleum and derivatives. As a result, closing the strait would suggest a total shutdown of the country's monetary lifeline, right away stopping revenue inflows to the state budget. Bahrain: Development forecast for Bahrain's economy has actually declined by 1.8 portion points considering that January.