Global Capital Opportunities within the GCC

Threats are tilted to the drawback. In the occasion of a prolonged dispute, the present impacts on the area will be compoundedthrough elevated energy and food prices, decreasing trade, tourist and remittances, increased fiscal pressures, and displacement. "The existing crisis is a stark reminder of the work ahead for the area: not only to weather shocks, but to rebuild more durable economies with more powerful macroeconomic basics, innovate and improve governance, invest in infrastructure, and increase employment-creating sectors," stated.

With peace and the ideal action, nations can develop the organizations, abilities and competitive sectors that create chances for individuals." With this long-term vision in mind, the report takes a close look at the region's capacity for commercial policy federal government actions to increase strategic business activity as a chauffeur of financial development and job development.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Governments in the area have adopted commercial policy at a high rate in the last decade, frequently through sovereign wealth funds and state-owned business, however the outcomes have actually been blended. The report highlights the crucial need for strong organizations and cautious targeting of policies. "As countries face the heavy toll of the present dispute, it is very important to also not forget the work required for long-lasting peace and prosperity," said.

GCC Equity Trading Patterns for 2026

Q2 2026: The ICAEW Economic Update Middle East, is a quarterly financial projection for the region prepared straight for the finance profession. The GCC economy faces a significant contraction this year pending information of the US-Iran arrangement to end the war. We anticipate energy flows, tourist and investor sentiment to gradually normalise as war disruptions decrease.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The interim contract between the US and Iran is a significant step towards reaching a full-blown deal. A complete go back to normality in the Strait of Hormuz will likely take time, however the risk of a recession-inducing oil cost spike has declined. Worldwide GDP is expected to grow by 2.4% this year, 0.2 ppt less than we forecasted 3 months back, and 3.1% in 2027.

We forecast a 4.1% contraction in Middle East GDP this year (versus forecasted 3.6% expansion before the war), greater than the decrease in the very first year of the Covid pandemic. Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Qatar stick out as the hardest hit, owing to their failure to avoid the disturbance to regional shipping, war-driven infrastructure damage and tourism losses.

Our 2026 outlook for the GCC is weaker than three months back, with GDP projection to contract by 2.4% compared to a 0.2% decline predicted formerly. We expect Oman and Saudi Arabia to be the least adversely impacted by the fallout from the dispute, with both economies continuing to broaden this year.

The financial damage sustained in the last few months is substantial. Saudi GDP information for Q1 revealed growth slowed to 3% y/y, with non-oil activities expanding by 2.9%, the weakest rate considering that the Covid pandemic. On a seasonally changed basis, GDP contracted 1.2% q/q, driven by a 6.8% fall in oil activities as the Strait of Hormuz disturbance struck late in the quarter.

The 2026 Investment Landscape in Arabia

Aside from Oman, all GCC manufacturers in addition to Iran and Iraq have suffered substantial oil and gas production losses given that the start of the conflict. May data reveal regional production almost halved from pre-war levels, with the decline deepening relative to March and April. Rerouting efforts, consisting of by Saudi Arabia through the East-West Pipeline and the UAE through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, have assisted prevent an even bigger plunge in output.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

We forecast GCC oil sector output to agreement by 14.5% this year, which will mark the steepest decline in a number of decades. We then anticipate a 23.5% rebound next year, driven largely by normalisation from a seriously depressed base. Oil costs have been unstable, relieving listed below $85 per barrel as the interim contract was announced.

In the medium term, we expect oil prices to be slightly lower than our pre-war baseline, as the UAE's departure from OPEC+ enables a steady increase in its output towards the 5mn barrel per day production target once trade normalises. Versus this backdrop, the UAE will speed up the building of a new West-East pipeline that need to double the capability of export through Fujairah.

The May PMI studies reported output growth reaching its greatest level in 3 months, driven mostly by improved domestic need. However, they stay listed below long-run averages, with weak export orders and price pressures from higher product and transportation expenses are a common style. In general, we anticipate a 1.1% contraction in GCC non-energy sectors this year (compared to 4.2% development pre-war) and a gradual recovery over the rest of the years.