Global Investment Opportunities within the GCC

Dangers are tilted to the disadvantage. In the event of a prolonged conflict, the present effect on the area will be compoundedthrough elevated energy and food prices, declining trade, tourism and remittances, increased financial pressures, and displacement. "The present crisis is a plain reminder of the work ahead for the area: not only to weather shocks, but to rebuild more durable economies with stronger macroeconomic basics, innovate and enhance governance, invest in infrastructure, and boost employment-creating sectors," stated.

With peace and the right action, nations can construct the institutions, capabilities and competitive sectors that create opportunities for people." With this long-lasting vision in mind, the report takes a close appearance at the region's capacity for commercial policy federal government actions to increase strategic organization activity as a chauffeur of financial development and task development.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Governments in the region have adopted commercial policy at a high rate in the last years, often through sovereign wealth funds and state-owned enterprises, however the outcomes have actually been mixed. The report highlights the critical need for strong organizations and careful targeting of policies. "As nations deal with the heavy toll of the present conflict, it is very important to also not forget the work needed for long-lasting peace and success," said.

Essential Stock Market Insights for GCC Investors

Q2 2026: The ICAEW Economic Update Middle East, is a quarterly financial projection for the region prepared directly for the finance occupation. The GCC economy deals with a significant contraction this year pending details of the US-Iran contract to end the war. We expect energy flows, tourist and investor sentiment to slowly normalise as war disruptions diminish.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The interim arrangement between the US and Iran is a considerable step towards reaching a full-blown deal. A complete go back to normality in the Strait of Hormuz will likely take time, however the danger of a recession-inducing oil cost spike has actually declined. Worldwide GDP is anticipated to grow by 2.4% this year, 0.2 ppt less than we forecasted 3 months back, and 3.1% in 2027.

We forecast a 4.1% contraction in Middle East GDP this year (versus forecasted 3.6% growth before the war), greater than the decrease in the very first year of the Covid pandemic. Kuwait, Iran, Iraq and Qatar stand out as the hardest hit, owing to their failure to avoid the disruption to regional shipping, war-driven infrastructure damage and tourism losses.

Our 2026 outlook for the GCC is weaker than 3 months earlier, with GDP forecast to agreement by 2.4% compared to a 0.2% decline predicted previously. We expect Oman and Saudi Arabia to be the least negatively affected by the fallout from the dispute, with both economies continuing to broaden this year.

The economic damage incurred in the last few months is significant. Saudi GDP information for Q1 revealed development slowed to 3% y/y, with non-oil activities broadening by 2.9%, the weakest speed considering that the Covid pandemic. On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP contracted 1.2% q/q, driven by a 6.8% fall in oil activities as the Strait of Hormuz disruption struck late in the quarter.

Global Capital Prospects across the Middle East

Aside from Oman, all GCC manufacturers in addition to Iran and Iraq have suffered comprehensive oil and gas production losses because the start of the dispute. May information reveal local production nearly cut in half from pre-war levels, with the decrease deepening relative to March and April. Rerouting efforts, including by Saudi Arabia through the East-West Pipeline and the UAE through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, have helped avoid an even bigger plunge in output.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

However, we forecast GCC oil sector output to agreement by 14.5% this year, which will mark the steepest decrease in a number of years. We then expect a 23.5% rebound next year, driven largely by normalisation from a significantly depressed base. Meanwhile, oil prices have been unstable, reducing listed below $85 per barrel as the interim contract was revealed.

In the medium term, we expect oil prices to be somewhat lower than our pre-war standard, as the UAE's departure from OPEC+ permits a steady boost in its output towards the 5mn barrel each day production target as soon as trade normalises. Versus this backdrop, the UAE will accelerate the building of a brand-new West-East pipeline that ought to double the capability of export through Fujairah.

The May PMI surveys reported output development reaching its strongest level in 3 months, driven largely by enhanced domestic demand. Nevertheless, they stay below long-run averages, with weak export orders and price pressures from greater product and transport costs are a typical style. In general, we expect a 1.1% contraction in GCC non-energy sectors this year (compared to 4.2% growth pre-war) and a gradual healing over the rest of the decade.